Do or Do Not.

2006 Oscar Predictions

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Here we go, my official 2006 Oscar Predictions for the major award categories. Please note that these are not the movies that I necessarily think should win these awards, just those that I think will win.

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain. I don’t think there’s any derailing the Gay Cowboy Hype Train at this point. Not only is the movie, by most accounts, apparently worthy of the praise it’s garnered, but it’s the kind of movie Hollywood thinks should win, the kind of movie that shows how socially conscious and forward-thinking they are. And in a year when there’s no Titanic, no Gladiator, no Chicago, no The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, no massive commercial hit of sufficient quality to give the award to… that counts for a lot.

Best Actor: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. While Hoffman’s not quite into the body-of-work stage of his career yet, he’s close — he’s done work of exceptional quality for ten years without as much as a previous sniff at Oscar to show for it. Further, Hoffman’s an Actor’s Actor, which should help his chances since the Academy gave the award to a Movie Star last year (Jamie Foxx). That said, I won’t be the least little bit surprised if the Gay Cowboy Hype Train steamrolls through and drops Oscar into Heath Ledger’s lap instead.

Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. I hope the other four nominees have practiced their fake “I’m so happy for Reese!” smiles.

Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man. Giamatti’s been criminally shafted out of a Best Actor nomination two years in a row, perhaps because “supporting actor” just seems to fit Giamatti better than “leading actor.” He’s the quintessential second-banana character actor and the Academy would do well to give him his props here. I’m not counting out George Clooney since this category is likely his best shot at a win out of his three nominations.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, Junebug. Just a bizarre hunch. I was starting to write up a paragraph explaining why the Academy wouldn’t give this award to such a complete unknown… and then I remembered that Anna Paquin won it for The Piano. From everything I’ve heard for almost a year, Adams’ performance in Junebug was absolutely charming and terrific. And since most years some award goes to someone completely unexpected (paging Adrien Brody!), I’m going to say the bizarre and shocking happens here.

Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Whether or not Lee deserves it for this particular movie (and I’m not saying he doesn’t), he damn sure deserves it for helming such a diverse array of movies over the last ten years and bringing quality to each of them: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; The Ice Storm; Sense and Sensibility; Eat Drink Man Woman; even Hulk was a valiant effort at doing something different with the superhero genre. Tonight he picks up the award he should’ve earned for Crouching Tiger five years ago.

Best Original Screenplay: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash. Personally, I don’t agree with it — I thought the writing was heavy-handed, obvious and preachy and didn’t actually add anything to the dialogue about race relations — but, again, this is the kind of movie Hollywood loves to show off as proof that they’re Caring and Progressive and Not Shallow At All. And since Crash won’t be winning any of the other major awards its up for, this’ll have to be its one opportunity to let someone give a tearful, impassioned plea for improved race relations during the acceptance speech.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurty and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain. No contest. Even if the Gay Cowboy Hype Train weren’t barreling through L.A. tonight, McMurty and Ossana should get credit for taking an 18-page short story and turning it into such a complex, nuanced full-length screenplay.

Best Animated Feature: Wallace and Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Because it’s Wallace and Gromit. C’mon.

Written by Allen

March 5th, 2006 at 1:34 pm

Posted in Movies,Pop Culture

2 Responses to '2006 Oscar Predictions'

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  1. While I can see where you would find Reese Witherspoon a near-mortal lock, there’s a couple of things to be considered:

    1. My own brilliant post trumpeting Felicity Huffman’s performance in Transamerica.

    2. Kevin Smith doesn’t like her at all. And he made Jersey Girl, so he should know about Actresses Who Aren’t Wnning Oscars Anytime Soon.

    3. Legally Blonde

    4. Legally Blonde 2: Red White and Blonde.

    timmy b

    5 Mar 06 at 10:52 pm

  2. Can’t talk now. Eating crow.

    The words “Oscar-winner Reese Witherspoon” would have been more suitably uttered back when she did the immortal Freeway with Kiefer Sutherland, Max Hedaya, and Brooke Shields.

    Now that’s a Reese I want “to matter”.

    timmy b.

    6 Mar 06 at 11:03 am

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