Do or Do Not.

Oscar Wrapup ‘07: “Genius or Idiot?” Edition

with 6 comments

Oscars ’07 are now officially in the books, and during last night’s telecast we saw (to take a cue from Lifetime Achievement winner Ennio Morricone) the Good (awards to deserving veterans like Helen Mirren, Alan Arkin and Forest Whitaker), the Bad (Celine Dion’s overwrought and occasionally off-key histrionics) and the Ugly (a shaven-headed Jack Nicholson).

But now that we know who all got to go home with tiny bald men, I know there’s one key question you still need answered: how did Allen do with his Oscar predictions?

The answer: Overall pretty well, I think, though I certainly don’t like the fact that I blew both Best Picture winners. (Or I guessed them incorrectly, anyway.) Let’s look back at what I said on Friday and play a little game I’m going to call Genius or Idiot.

Best Picture. What I said: Babel. What won: The Departed. I did say that I was hoping Babel wouldn’t win, though I was hoping if it didn’t Little Miss Sunshine would. I also said I couldn’t see The Departed, a really high-end crime thriller, winning this one. Clearly, the ruling on this one is Idiot.

Best Actor: What I said: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland. Who won: Whitaker. Congratulations to me for going with the prohibitive favorite. Genius.

Best Actress: What I said: Helen Mirren, The Queen. Who won: Mirren. Congratulations to me for going with one of the biggest locks in recent Oscar history. Genius.

Best Supporting Actor: What I said: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children. Who won: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine. Even though I was wrong in my pick, I’m still going to be kind to myself and give myself a Genius award for this one since I had the principle correct. I predicted this category was the one most likely to see an upset (’cause there’s always one) and thought Haley’s comeback performance would score it for him. However, while Oscar voters did exactly what I predicted, they didn’t do it how I predicted; it would appear that they thought Arkin’s 38-year absence from Oscar ballots trumped Haley’s former-child-star-made-good story.

Best Supporting Actress: What I said: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls. Who won: Hudson. Congratulations to me for going with the prohibitive favorite. Genius.

Best Director: What I said: Martin Scorcese, The Departed. Who won: Scorcese.  Yes, Marty was the favorite here, but he’s been the favorite before and never won, so this one wasn’t quite as much a gimme as one might have assumed. Still: Genius.

Best Original Screenplay: What I said: Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine. Who won: Arndt. I was partially right in thinking this would be the big reward for Sunshine since comedies don’t win Best Picture; I underestimated the voters’ love for this movie, what with them giving Arkin his first Oscar, too. Genius.

Best Adapted Screenplay: What I said: William Monahan, The Departed. Who won: Monahan. This award was the source of one of my biggest sources of joy and my biggest predictive embarrassment. The joy: I had no idea that I looked just friggin’ like Monahan (‘cept he�’ a little beefier, I think). Seeing him stand on that stage receiving his Oscar made it very, very easy for me to picture myself doing the same thing someday. The embarrassment? I quote myself:

I’ll tell you this right now: while you’re watching the awards telecast, if you see The Departed win this award and Scorcese wins for Best Director and you’ve got money riding on it winning Best Picture — go change your bets fast if you still can. No way does it win all three.

Yeah, well. According to recent Oscar history, that should have been true, though as the ever-astute Tim P. pointed out, that’s not true historically –movies which are deemed good enough to win Best Screenplay and Best Director usually go on to win Best Picture as well. Maybe I should’ve thought about this one more in the larger context, but I didn’t. If I’m going to give myself a Genius for getting one wrong above, I think it’s only fair to give myself an Idiot for this one even though I got it right. (For future reference, any time you ever see me reference betting with regards to a prediction of mine, that’s a good sign you should go the other way with whatever I say.)

Best Animated Feature: What I said: Cars. What won: Happy Feet. I did say I wouldn’t be surprised if Happy Feet won, especially given that it was, y’know, a better movie. Still: Idiot.

So the final tally for this year is 6-3 Genius. I think that’s certainly respectable. Join me again next February as I continue my quest to someday pick every one of the major categories correctly. As long as I stay away from making any comments about wagers, I think it’s possible.

Written by Allen

February 26th, 2007 at 9:49 am

Posted in Movies,Pop Culture

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6 Responses to 'Oscar Wrapup ‘07: “Genius or Idiot?” Edition'

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  1. “both Best Picture winners”? Was there more than one?


    26 Feb 07 at 10:05 am

  2. Counting Best Animated Picture in there, too. It might not carry as much weight with the Oscars as a whole, but it means a lot to me. :)


    26 Feb 07 at 10:07 am

  3. You can ask Sandy… the first thing I said when Monaghan stood up to go get his Oscar was, “Oh my god it’s Allen!”

    Timmy B!

    26 Feb 07 at 2:01 pm

  4. Timmy, you’re not the first person today to tell me that. :)


    26 Feb 07 at 2:05 pm

  5. [...] year, there was no doubt:  I’m a genius, me.  Last year, I went 6-for-9, but felt particularly idiotic for missing Best Picture; this year, of the nine categories for [...]

  6. [...] year, there was no doubt: I’m a genius, me. Last year, I went 6-for-9, but felt particularly idiotic for missing Best Picture; this year, of the nine categories for [...]

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